Stock-to-flow fallacies:

  1. The highest market signal is price;
  2. Supply (stock) influences demand as important but secondary factor;
  3. Market cap (stocks, in USD-terms) influences demand as important but secondary factor;
  4. When we do economic calculation, we are measuring probabilities. In markets, this means a trend;
  5. The trend must follow the highest market signal (See #1);
  6. There are four basic trends: Linear, Logarithmic, Exponential, and Power;
  7. Bitcoin’s price (adoption) follows power;
  8. Bitcoin’s supply (stock) follows logarithmic;
  9. Gold, silver, most of finance, et al. follows exponential;
  10. Keep it simple, but don’t shoehorn, or ham-fist an idea.

It all comes down to the trend. The trend is your friend:

TRENDGOLDSILVERBITCOIN
PRICEExponentialExponentialPower
EMISSIONExponentialExponentialExponential
SUPPLYExponentialExponentialLogarithmic
MARKET CAPExponentialExponentialPower

The stock-to-flow model is a power curve, with a blend of inputs that are both power (Bitcoin S2F clusters) and exponential (gold and silver growth).

The stock-to-flow model is not an exponential curve.